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117 <br /> GHG Emissions Forecasts <br /> GHG emission forecasts can be used to estimate the effectiveness of the Plan's carbon <br /> reduction strategies in reaching the County's goals. Emission forecasts that include the <br /> implementation of the strategies, can be compared to forecasts that do not include the <br /> strategies, which are called Business as Usual (BAU) forecasts. An Adjusted Business as <br /> Usual (ABAU) forecast considers factors such as population and employment, projecting <br /> emission changes based on expected growth, but without the County taking any mitigation <br /> action.An ABAU forecast additionally considers the anticipated behaviors of outside actors, <br /> on the County. A good example of such an actor is an electric utility company that has <br /> committed to reduce emissions from its energy mix; by virtue of their commitment, County <br /> emissions would fall due to declining emissions of the electricity used within the County. <br /> Finally, to measure the impact of the Plan, the GHG reduction potential of each strategy is <br /> subtracted from the BAU and/or ABAU forecasts. <br /> BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST <br /> The Orange County business-as-usual forecast scenario shows an estimate of how GHG <br /> emissions would change between the years 2019 and 2050 if population trends, vehicle <br /> efficiencies, and energy usage continue, without further application of regulations that <br /> would reduce local emissions. As shown in Figure 2, under the 2019 business-as usual <br /> forecast,Orange County's GHG emissions are estimated to grow approximately 10%above <br /> 2019 emission levels by the year 2050 (from 1,631,674 MT CO2e to 1,813,315 MT CO2e).16 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS AS USUAL <br /> en 2 <br /> Z <br /> 0 1.8 <br /> J <br /> 5 1.6 <br /> 1.4 <br /> 1.2 <br /> 1 <br /> v <br /> 0.8 <br /> U 0.6 <br /> H <br /> 0.4 <br /> 0.2 <br /> 0 <br /> Nq ,y0 rl' r1`L rp ftA,1h ryb�'1 r�0,yQ ip r3'�!91Y 13 3b,3h,3b,3'1 �0 41 b0 R� A:b 03 0�* R�1 Rb �A O0 OP y0 <br /> ,LO,yo tip tip ry0,y0,y0,y0,LO,LO,y0,y0 ey0,yo,y0,y0,LO,y0 ry0,1O,y0,y0 10,LO 1P,y0 1P 11O 1P 110 110 11P <br /> PROCESS&FUGITIVE EMISSIONS E SOLID WASTE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY <br /> WATER&WASTEWATER INDUSTRIAL ENERGY TRANSPORTATION <br /> COMMERCIAL ENERGY &MOBILE SOURCES <br /> FIGURE 2: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST <br /> 6 This forecast was developed in the ICLEI ClearPath program and utilizes baseline annual population <br /> growth which is calculated to be approximately 1.1%as according to the US Census Bureau between <br /> 2010 and 2020. <br /> 5 ORANGE COUNTY, NC • APPENDICES <br />