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113 <br /> Summary <br /> This report describes greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions reduction targets and estimated <br /> forecasts that are identified in Orange County's 2023 Climate Action Plan (the Plan). It <br /> also describes the County's mitigation target plan to the year 2050.The report quantifies <br /> the carbon reduction impact that local and federal laws, utility grid mix changes, and <br /> transportation efficiencies will have on Orange County's business-as-usual forecast, <br /> which results in an"adjusted business-as-usual forecast."Finally,it provides visualizations <br /> of the results of Orange County's"Top 10"emission reduction strategies from the Plan. <br /> Provisional targets for Orange County's GHG mitigation efforts are as follows: <br /> 1. Achieve 50%emissions reduction target by 2030 from a 2005 baseline. <br /> 2. Achieve 100%emissions reduction by 2050 from a 2005 baseline <br /> This "forecasting" report focuses on emissions in comparison to the 2005 baseline. <br /> In 2005 the total tracked emissions' for Orange County were 2,802,5002 metric tons <br /> (MT) of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e).3 In 2017 the GHG inventory was 1,777,667 <br /> MT CO2e.4 The total emissions in 2019 fell to 1,631,671 MT CO2e which represented a <br /> reduction of 40.7% in 14 years.5 Looking forward, a business-as-usual (BA U)6 forecast <br /> for Orange County shows emissions will grow to 1,693,944 MT CO2e by 2030, and to <br /> 1,813,315 MT CO2e by 2050, if no further action is taken. The adjusted business-as- <br /> usual (ABAU)forecast shows emissions will reduce to 1,311,816 MT CO2e in 2030, and to <br /> 947,191 MT CO2e in 2050; this forecast considers the expected effect of several policy <br /> measures that are described below. To achieve targets set in the 2023 Climate Action <br /> Plan emissions from sectors listed in the 2005 GHG inventory(residential, commercial, <br /> and industrial energy, transportation, and solid waste) should not exceed 1,410,250 <br /> MT CO2e by the year 2030. A 100% reduction in emissions would require significant <br /> investment in the strategies listed in the Plan, in addition to other actors achieving State <br /> and local policy goals(i.e. utility renewable energy targets,vehicle efficiency measures, <br /> etc.). If targets from policy goals plus the Top 10 Emission reduction strategies from the <br /> 2023 Plan are met, the County's emissions will reduce to 993,646 MT CO2e by 2030 <br /> and 56,991 MT CO2e by 2050. <br /> https://www.epa.gov/climateleadership/scope-1-and-scope-2-inventory-guidance <br /> 2 https://www.orangecountync.gov/DocumentCenter/View/2002/ <br /> Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Inventory-and-Forecast-PDF <br /> 3 The only sectors surveyed in the 2005 inventory were residential,commercial, and industrial energy, <br /> transportation,and solid waste. Further,The GHG inventory associated with this Plan comes from <br /> 2019 data. <br /> 4 https://www.orangecountync.gov/DocumentCenter/View/10049/ <br /> Orange-County-Greenhouse-Gas-Inventory-2017 <br /> 5 In 2019 there was tracking of water and wastewater,and fugitive emissions from natural gas processes, <br /> which increased total emissions. <br /> b The business-as-usual forecast was estimated starting in the year 2019 using projected growth in <br /> population, households,employment,and vehicle miles traveled between 2010 and 2020.Projections <br /> were obtained from the United States Census Data. Data for the years 2020 and 2050 were estimated <br /> using straight-line interpolation from the USA Census. <br /> 1 ORANGE COUNTY, NC • APPENDICES <br />