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Agenda 09-19-23; 6-a - Orange County NC 54 Multimodal Corridor Study
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Agenda 09-19-23; 6-a - Orange County NC 54 Multimodal Corridor Study
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9/14/2023 11:36:44 AM
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BOCC
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9/19/2023
Meeting Type
Business
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Agenda
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6-a
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MPO Board 10/9/2019 Item 8 <br /> Ref: 38587.01 <br /> October 1, 2019 <br /> Page 6 <br /> • Growth in the east is concentrated in Chapel Hill, primarily in nodes along NC 86 and US 15/501. Particularly <br /> relevant to this study is the Lloyd Farm development in the northeast quadrant of the NC 54/Old Fayetteville <br /> Road intersection. <br /> TRM Comparison to StreetLight InSight Analysis <br /> A select-link analysis was performed using the Triangle Regional model (TRM v6)to provide a comparison against <br /> the StreetLight analysis described previously for the eastward distribution of trips to/from a point on NC 54 just east <br /> of Orange Grove Road. Because of minor anomalies in the Base Year network loading at the western end of the <br /> corridor, some manual adjustments were necessary, and comparative runs for 2045 Build and No-Build scenarios <br /> were also conducted. The results are summarized in Figure 12. The major differences between the TRM the <br /> StreetLight trip distributions occur at the eastern end of the corridor.lust east of Old Fayetteville Road, both <br /> analyses estimate between 82%and 83%of eastbound trips from just east of Orange Grove Road are still on NC 54. <br /> But the TRM distributes 5%fewer trips north on Old Fayetteville Road, and loses none at Carrboro Plaza.This leaves <br /> 77%of the original trips, as opposed to 66%according to StreetLight. More importantly,TRM assigns a far higher <br /> proportion of these trips to West Main Street. TRM has 25%of the initial traffic turning on West Main Street(versus <br /> 12%according to StreetLight), and 52%continuing down NC 54 Bypass (versus 54%). This works out to a 68%/32% <br /> (or 2.1 to 1) split between n NC 54 Bypass and West Main Street. The Streetlight analysis yielded a split of 82%/18% <br /> (or 4.5 to 1). <br /> This difference is probably attributable to the fact that regional travel demand models like TRM tend to under- <br /> estimate intersection delay as congestion increases, especially through denser downtown areas. It also appears that <br /> trips to Carrboro Plaza and up Old Fayetteville Road (including McDougal Middle School) are either under- <br /> represented or inaccurately routed. <br /> TRM Comparison of Build (Widen NC 54) and No-Build Scenarios <br /> To estimate the traffic impacts of the proposed widening of NC 54 on traffic patterns, two 2045 TRM networks were <br /> compared. Both have identical socio-economic data and include all transportation improvement projects assumed <br /> in the latest DCHC Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP).The only difference is that the Widen NC 54 (Build) <br /> Scenario, a 45-mph 4-lane divided cross-section is assumed for NC 54 between 1-40 in Graham and Old Fayetteville <br /> Road in Carrboro. The No-Build Scenario assumes the existing cross-section is maintained. <br /> After trips were distributed and assigned to the two networks, daily volumes in the No-Build network were <br /> subtracted from the corresponding link volumes in the Build (widen NC 54) network. Results are summarized in <br /> Figure 13. Where traffic volumes are higher in the Build scenario (due to diversion from other routes), links are <br /> shaded red and given bandwidths corresponding to the magnitude of the increase. Where traffic volumes are lower <br /> in the Build scenario, links are shaded blue and assigned bandwidths corresponding to the magnitude of the <br /> decrease. Changes in daily traffic volumes are indicated on representative links. Changes of less than 100 <br /> vehicles/day are not represented.Volumes for West Main Street and NC 54 Bypass were adjusted to compensate for <br /> Page 6 of 12 <br />
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