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MPO Board 10/9/2019 Item 8 <br /> Ref: 38587.01 <br /> October 1, 2019 <br /> Page 5 <br /> Observations <br /> • About 17% of daily traffic on NC 54 just east of Orange Grove Road enters/exits NC 54 between this location <br /> and just west of Old Fayetteville Road. <br /> • During the AM peak, only 9%of traffic on NC 54 just east of Orange Grove Road enters/exits NC 54 between <br /> this location and just west of Old Fayetteville Road.This is consistent with a higher proportion of longer <br /> commuter trips. <br /> • For West Main Street daily traffic, about 12%of traffic enters/exits NC 54 between this just west of Old <br /> Fayetteville Road and just east of Orange Grove Road. For NC 54 Bypass traffic, this figure is about 11%. <br /> • Trips using West Main Street tend to be more local that trips using NC 54 Bypass. <br /> TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS <br /> The NC 54 West corridor study area spans two regional travel demand models. The portion west of the Alamance <br /> County line is represented in the Piedmont Triad Regional Model (PTRM), while the Orange County portion to the <br /> east is part of the Triangle Regional model (TRM v6). <br /> Growth Forecasts <br /> Traffic growth in both models is derived from forecasts of population and employment growth and characteristics, <br /> geographically distributed by traffic analysis zone. Figures 10a-10c and 11a-11c depict TRM and PTRM assumptions <br /> about the distribution and growth of population and employment relative to the NC 54 West study area and the <br /> three travelsheds presented previously. <br /> Because population and employment data available for the two models have different base and design years, values <br /> were extrapolated to obtain consistent values for 2017 and 2045. Also, dot-density plots were used to more <br /> effectively represent the density, magnitude, and distribution of population and employment among traffic analysis <br /> zones (TAZs). Note that each dot represents a number of data points (100 persons; 50 jobs). Dots are randomly <br /> located within each TAZ, and do not represent specific locations. <br /> The socio-economic forecasts in both models were approved and adopted by relevant MPOs and RPOs for use in <br /> transportation planning. Consultation with Alamance and Orange County planning staff did not identify any <br /> problems with the growth assumed in either the TRM and PTRM. <br /> Observations <br /> • Development remains sparse along the middle segment of the corridor, due in large part to environmental <br /> constraints. <br /> • Relative growth is greatest in the western portion of the corridor, both in Alamance County and Mebane, <br /> especially along and west of NC 119. Development includes residential, industrial, and commercial, as well <br /> as newly-approved high school at the corner of NC 54 and NC 119. <br /> Page 5 of 12 <br />