Agenda 09-19-23; 6-a - Orange County NC 54 Multimodal Corridor Study

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MPO Board 10/9/2019 Item 8 Ref: 38587.01 October 1, 2019 Page 2 NC 54 Travelsheds Figure 1 represents the approximate extent of the "travelshed"for trips to/from the center of Chapel Hill via the NC 54 West corridor. Trips beginning/ending within the shaded area are more likely to use NC 54 than alternate routes (especially 1-40)for trips to/from downtown Chapel Hill, based on historically-determined relative travel times for routes provided by Google Maps. For example, a traveler starting near the northern edge of the shaded area could drive to downtown Chapel Hill via NC 54 or 1-40 in about the same time. Figure 2 demonstrates the impact of shifting the destination slightly south, to Southern Village. The added time required to drive all the way through Chapel Hill results in NC 54 being a shorter route for trips from the northwest (Burlington/Graham). There is a dividing line for somewhere around the NC 54 Bypass. Figure 3 is a comparable representation for trips to Burlington/Graham. Note that the relative volume of trips in each of these cases varies, and will change over time. The key to defining these travelsheds is the difference in relative travel times among alternative routes. Increasing congestion along 1-40 or NC 86 would be expected to shift this boundary northward and eastward, while more congestion along NC 54 would constrict the shaded area. Conversely, improvements that reduce relative travel times would expand a road's travelshed. Observations Comparing the travelsheds for the two major locations considered reveals several interesting observations: • For central Chapel Hill trips, while the travelshed spreads farther north and east, it does not extend beyond the ends of the corridor. • A minor shift south to Southern Village yields a travelshed that extends west and north of the Graham end of the corridor. This helps demonstrate the complex combination of origins and destinations served by the NC 54 west corridor. Although Chapel Hill is a major destination for trips using the NC 54 Study Area Corridor, there are dozens of significant trip-end pairs using portions of the corridor, and the relative volumes of these trips can shift over time in response to local and regional growth and development, congestion, and roadway improvements. • For the centralized Burlington/Graham location,while the travelshed is narrower on the northern side, it extends well beyond the eastern end of the corridor, widening greatly to the south to include portions of northern Chatham County. This travelshed also applies to destinations north and west of the indicated location. Growth outside the corridor is a more significant factor in traffic increases in this travel market than for the downtown Chapel Hill travel market. • Trips between western Orange County and points east of Chapel Hill (such as Durham and RTP) use this portion of NC 54 and the Bypass; however, 1-40 is a more attractive option for trips originating farther west, or even a slight distance north of NC 54 through the study area. Although this analysis does provide some insights about who is using this portion of NC 54, it has limitations. It does not reflect route selections of actual travelers, only the estimated minimum travel-time routes based on historical averages.These travel times are derived from samplings of signals from location-based services, which are subject to Page 2 of 12