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113 <br /> GHG Emissions Forecasts <br /> GHG emission forecasts can be used to estimate the effectiveness of the Plan's carbon <br /> reduction strategies in reaching the County's goals. Emission forecasts that include the <br /> implementation of the strategies, can be compared to forecasts that do not include the <br /> strategies, which are called BAU forecasts. A BAU forecast considers factors such as <br /> population and employment, projecting emission changes based on expected growth, but <br /> without the County taking any mitigation action.An ABAU forecast is similar,but additionally <br /> considers relevant,anticipated behaviors of outside actors on the County.A good example is <br /> an electricity utility that has committed to reduce emissions from its energy mix; by virtue of <br /> their commitment, County emissions would fall due to declining emissions of the electricity <br /> used within the County. Finally, to measure the impact of the Plan, the GHG reduction <br /> potential of each strategy is subtracted from the BAU and/or ABAU forecasts. <br /> BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST <br /> The Orange County business-as-usual forecast scenario shows an estimate of how GHG <br /> emissions would change between the years 2019 and 2050 if population trends, vehicle <br /> efficiencies, and energy usage continue, without further application of regulations that <br /> would reduce local emissions. As shown in Figure 2, under the 2019 business-as usual <br /> forecast,Orange County's GHG emissions are estimated to grow approximately 10%above <br /> 2019 emission levels by the year 2050 (from 1,631,674 MT CO2e to 1,813,315 MT CO2e).15 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS AS USUAL <br /> CO) 2 <br /> Z <br /> g 18 <br /> g 1.6 <br /> 1.4 <br /> 1.2 <br /> 1 <br /> p 0.8 <br /> U <br /> 0.6 <br /> 0.4 <br /> 0.2 <br /> 0 <br /> Ng ,Ory A3qRhb to !1 ,o bll3 !001;,!b gh bA b1b bq op t:, pab p` Nlb o NA N1 0gpOtiOOOti00O0titiOti 0ti01P 1P 1P 1P 1P 1P OOOOti ti tiOO <br /> TRANSPORTATION& RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PROCESS&FUGITIVE EMISSIONS <br /> MOBILE SOURCES WATER&WASTEWATER INDUSTRIAL ENERGY <br /> ®SOLID WASTE COMMERCIAL ENERGY <br /> FIGURE 2: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST <br /> 5 This forecast was developed in the ICLEI ClearPath program and utilizes baseline annual population <br /> growth which is calculated to be approximately 1.1%as according to the US Census Bureau between <br /> 2010 and 2020. <br /> 5 ORANGE COUNTY, NC • APPENDICES <br />