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7 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2022-2023 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2022-2023 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2022-2023 Membership <br /> Actual 2022 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementa 3059 3228 H169 3321 H262 3320 H261 2994 L65 3000 L59 <br /> Middle 1598 1682 H84 1710 H112 1713 H115 1611 H13 1622 H24 <br /> Hi h 2487 2517 H30 2426 H61 2433 L54 2367 L120 2508 H21 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- <br /> Made: 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 <br /> Elementary 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% <br /> Middle 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% <br /> mo 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 82.2%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase,but remain negative <br /> over the next 10 years (average--0.47%per year compared to -1.37% over the past <br /> 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 95%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -1.77% compared to an average of 0.21% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.4%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -2.09% compared to 0.61% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High <br /> School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 <br /> students in the 10-year projection period. <br /> ii <br />