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<br /> <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />Table 2 presents the deflection rates estimates provided by the stakeholders. There are two estimates for <br />each stakeholder/episode type: a high deflection rate and a low deflection rate. The high and low values <br />are used to bracket the possible outcomes and account for uncertainty in projecting how the new Facility <br />will be integrated with stakeholder practices. <br />It should be noted that for some stakeholders the deflection rate applies to the total number of episodes <br />estimated to occur in Orange County each month. For other stakeholders, the deflection rate applies to the <br />episodes most likely to be deflected to the new Facility. The notes for Table 2 add some of this <br />explanation to the raw numbers. <br />Figure 2. Deflection Estimates by Episode Category and Stakeholder. <br /> Notes <br />1. The nature of most IVC cases is that many could be deflected to the new Facility. However, of <br />approximately 263 IVC cases occurring in Orange County each month (average of 2020 and 2021), <br />80% originate from within UNC. This leaves at most about 52 who could be deflected. Other factors <br />further reduce this number (e.g., double counting, multiple orders per episode). Therefore, based on <br />reconciling IVC data with UNC ED/PES data, we estimate that only about 20 IVC cases may be <br />deflected (see Table 1) and of these we assume 100% are deflected to the Facility. <br />2. Chapel Hill Carrboro City Schools and Orange County Public Schools estimated episodes to be 5% <br />and 4% of student enrollment, respectively. So, the 100% represents the 5% value (the CHCCS <br />estimate) and 80% represents the 4% value (the OCPS estimate). The 5% value is shown in Table 1. <br />3. Routine patients appearing at the UNC Emergency Department do not require a psychological <br />assessment and are discharged from ED without being admitted. Diversion assumption is that they <br />could be provided with a reference to the Facility where they may obtain services in the future. These <br />cases are assumed to be include in the walk-in category and are not counted separately, thus a zero <br />deflection rate. <br />4. For sobering cases, we only included sobering cases that appear before the Magistrate. Did not <br />include deflections from ED as those likely are included in the EMS/LE categories. See Appendix for <br />more detail. <br />5. Walk-in cases are scaled from Durham County number to OC population. OC population is about <br />52% of Durham County (150,000 vs 291,000). So, 100% represent the assumption that OC will <br />experience same walk-in rate as Durham. 110% assumes that OC walk-in episodes in OC will be at a <br />somewhat higher rate than Durham. <br />6. Of the ED cases not otherwise diverted, a percent could be stepped down to C-D Facility in lieu of <br />inpatient admittance. Data from UNC ED suggest that this number could be as high as 25%. This <br />HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW <br />EMS 90.0%80.0%100.0%95.0% <br />CHPD 80.0%70.0%80.0%70.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%50.0% <br />CPD 80.0%70.0%80.0%70.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%50.0% <br />HPD 80.0%70.0%80.0%70.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%50.0% <br />OCSO 80.0%70.0%80.0%70.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%50.0% <br />UNCP 80.0%70.0%80.0%70.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%80.0%95.0%50.0% <br />All Orange County 35.0%25.0% <br />OCSO Detention Center 100.0%80.0% <br />Courts (assessments, etc.)100.0%75.0%100.0%80.0% <br />Juvenile Justice 100.0%67.0% <br />Magstrate - IVCs 100.0%100.0%1 <br />OC DSS 100.0%80.0% <br />CHCCS 100.0%80.0%2 <br />OC Schools 100.0%40.0% <br />UNC ED/PES (Routine Cases) 0.0%0.0%3 <br />UNC CAPS <br />Sobering Diversions 95.0%65.0%4 <br />Walk-ins 110.0%100.0%5 <br />Mobile Crisis (FH)0.0%0.0% <br />UNC (Urgent/Emergent)10.0%5.0%6 <br />NotesHomelessCourtsDetention Ctr.Stakeholder MH-NV MH-V Suicide SUD IVCs <br />DocuSign Envelope ID: 1920B089-58AA-4E97-8225-7BCF8DEBAAD4