12.7.22 PB Agenda Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

48 student projections are made and the capacity needs assessment is analyzed. This part of SAPFO is the tracking of historical enrollment and the projection of future student enrollment against existing capacity at a certain grade group level. This is not directly related to a development project, but a current year outcome of how many children actually `show up' in a school year. This includes non-new project related students from existing housing stock. ■ The 10-year student projections developed for the SAPFO Annual Report forecast future school needs based on current student membership numbers and historic growth rates derived by the five projection models. Once students begin to `show up' in a school year through annual reporting of student membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity needs in time to efficiently plan for future school construction requests. ■ The process accounting for students once they are actually enrolled in the school system emphasizes a delay that exists from the time a residential development is approved and developed to when students begin to enter the system. For example, the significant proposed residential growth that has occurred in the recent past within Mebane's jurisdiction (and Hillsborough as well) has yet to be seen with OCS student membership numbers and fully realized into the historically based projection methods due to the recession, charter schools, and possibly new family dynamics affecting family size. Orange County staff will continue to work with the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee and our planning partners to monitor future residential development throughout Orange County. 3. Charter Schools ■ Charter Schools' membership and capacity numbers are not included in the SAPFOTAC Annual Report. However, the SAPFO Technical Advisory Committee does monitor charter schools and their effect on student enrollment at both school districts. When issuing CAPS for new residential development, it is assumed that students generated from the new development will all feed into the public school system. As a result, the process does not account for possible charter school enrollment resulting from new residential development. Including charter school membership and capacity in the SAPFO process may be a difficult element to implement since charter school students are not required to live in Orange County. So students attending charter schools in Orange County may not be Orange County residents. Forecasting for these unknown variables may not provide feasible results when analyzing current and future student memberships and capacities. ■ Two Charter Schools are currently operating in the Orange County School district. Concerns were raised regarding the effects the closing of a charter school may have on OCS and CHCCS capacity levels. Pace Academy High School closed before the 2015-16 school year with no substantial effects on OCS and CHCCS. Both school districts experienced a decrease in student membership at the high school level. Some students from Pace Academy were absorbed into the OCS and CHCCS systems, but others may have absorbed into other public school districts or charter schools located outside of Orange County. If a charter school does close and a spike is realized in school enrollment, the student projections will likely accelerate the need in future years, still within an appropriate time for CIP planning.