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38 <br /> Elected Official's Guide to Emergencies and Disasters <br /> Appendix D: Hazards in Orange County <br /> Hazard Likelihood of Occurrence <br /> The Orange County Hazard Mitigation (OCHM) Team estimates the likelihood of each <br /> type of hazard occurring in Orange County. This estimate is based on the local history <br /> of the events as of September 2020. <br /> ➢ Highly Likely: Near 100% probability in the next year. <br /> y Likely: Between 10% - 100% probability in the next year, or at least one chance <br /> in the next ten years. <br /> Possible: Between 1% - 10% probability in the next year or at least one chance <br /> in the next 100 years. <br /> Unlikely: Less than 1% probability in the next year, or less than one chance in <br /> the next 100 years. <br /> Hazard Prone Areas <br /> Certain areas, such as floodplains and steep slopes, are more prone to hazards than <br /> others. Many of these are readily identifiable on maps. The OCHM Team identified <br /> those areas that are most vulnerable to each natural hazard and determined whether <br /> they cover a small, medium, or large proportion of Orange County. <br /> All but two of the types of natural hazards most likely to affect Orange County (Severe <br /> Winter Storms, Thunderstorms and Tornadoes, Drought and Heat Waves, Flooding, and <br /> Landslides) have equal potential to occur anywhere within the county and its <br /> municipalities (i.e.- one area of the county is not more likely to be affected than another). <br /> Landslides are more likely to occur in the southeastern portion of the county due to the <br /> types of soils and topography prevalent in that geographic area. Flooding, while it can <br /> conceivably occur anywhere in the county, is more likely in floodplain areas. <br /> Hazard Impact <br /> Some natural hazards have greater impacts than others but occur infrequently (severe <br /> earthquakes) and others hazards occur annually or several time a year but cause less <br /> damage (thunderstorms). The impact is a combination of the magnitude of the event, <br /> how large an area within the community is affected and the amount of human activity in <br /> that area. The following table explains how the impact is measured. <br /> 35 <br />