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3 <br /> addition, this methodology projects student generation rates based on historical trends in <br /> each of these areas. In order to reflect ongoing trends, it is important that the School <br /> Impact Fee/Student Generation Report be reviewed and updated on a regular basis such <br /> as every 4 to 5 years. The student projections can be updated annually. <br /> Orange County Planning Department Model <br /> The Orange County Planning Department has also developed a projection model. This is a <br /> linear model that reflects growth potential and takes into consideration the cyclical wave of <br /> higher membership "bubbles" that progress through school levels. In addition, the unique <br /> membership percentage of a specific school level to the total of the school district <br /> membership is also reflected. (eg. relatively higher high school membership percentages in <br /> the CH\C School District). <br /> Cohort Survival Model <br /> This methodology uses historical trends to calculate projected students by age group or <br /> grade level. While the Student Generation Model outlined in the previous section <br /> considers new housing starts, the Cohort Survival Model also provides for birth rates and <br /> migration. This is an important factor because live birth rates for Orange County residents <br /> have been relatively flat for some time. However, student populations continue to increase <br /> annually. The use of computer spreadsheet models provides ease in updating these <br /> numbers each year and in providing varying assumptions (for example, comparison of <br /> student growth in a three, five, or ten year period). <br /> On March 6, 2002, new capacity and membership data was received. <br /> The Schools and Land Use Councils, for its March 13, 2002 meeting, (Agenda attached) <br /> received an update of school membership data and capacity data for the two school districts as <br /> noted in Agenda Item 4. Other Agenda Items (5-8) are noted in the attachment regarding <br /> elements of the proposed Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance. <br /> On April 3, Planning staff will be prepared to make a brief presentation of the data presented at <br /> that meeting. <br /> FINANCIAL IMPACT: No financial impact results at this time. <br /> RECOMMENDATION(S): The Manager recommends that the Board of County <br /> Commissioners receive the information regarding the School Facilities Task Force and Schools <br /> and Land Use Councils Agenda, offer comments, and direct staff to pursue updates and various <br /> school aspect recommendations. <br />