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2 <br /> (3) comparing the current and projected numbers with existing student capacity in a <br /> system's,permanent structures. <br /> Identifying the number of students actually occupying seats provides a base on which to project <br /> future growth in student population. <br /> The Task Force agreed that student membership provides the most realistic picture of the <br /> actual number of students attending schools. This is the only method that accounts for new <br /> student enrollees as well as those no longer attending class. In order to provide consistency in <br /> comparing actual year-to-year growth, it is important that both systems report the same monthly <br /> count to the County. The State requires school districts to report membership at the end of the <br /> second (fortieth day of school) and fifth (one hundredth day of school) months. After <br /> considering staff input, the Task Force agreed that student membership on the second <br /> month (fortieth day of school) each year should be the base number to use in planning <br /> for future school facilities. <br /> Methodologies to Use in Projecting Future Students <br /> Several student projection models have been discussed over the last year including models that <br /> are currently available as well as ones that will be at hand in the future. In order to make the <br /> most accurate projections, over time, it is important to use a compilation of methods for <br /> projecting the number of students. It is also important to look at historical growth patterns for <br /> each district. In order to provide consistency in projections from year to year, it is also important <br /> that the methodologies outlined below are the only ones used unless the Board of <br /> Commissioners approves an alternative method. This consistency allows for "best practice" <br /> projections that provide consistency from year-to-year. <br /> Currently Available Methodologies <br /> Readily available projection models include: <br /> • North Carolina Department of Public Instruction (DPI) model, <br /> • Student Generation Report prepared by Tischler and Associates, <br /> • Orange County Planning Department model, <br /> • Cohort Survival Method; a model used widely by education statisticians <br /> DPI Model <br /> Historically, projections made by State DPI have been low when compared to actual <br /> student membership growth. While the Task Force discussed this model, it was not highly <br /> recommended. <br /> Student Generation Report <br /> The County recently contracted with Tischler and Associates to update its School Impact <br /> Fee/Student Generation Report. While the Tischler method projects future student <br /> population numbers based on an Average Daily Membership (ADM) basis, this <br /> methodology is sound and can be applied to membership numbers as well. The Task <br /> Force agreed that this model is one that can be used in making projections. This model <br /> takes population statistics, housing starts, and student membership into account. In <br />