Agenda Attachments for June 23, 2022 Board Retreat

Browse Search

25 2) Development Potential: Orange County's Planning and Inspections Department provided the following forecast of potential commercial, retail, distribution and light manufacturing development, and revenue per acre for the Buckhorn Economic Development District and CITAN areas: • 1,000 acres • 880 gallons per day per acre (Sewer; Light Industrial Usage) (Water; 1000 gallons per day per acre) (standard used by Hobbs Upchurch Engineers in a 2012-13 study of the Efland- Buckhorn-Mebane region) • 880,000 gallons per day(design can accommodate with phased upgrades to approximately 1.1 million gallons per day) Background: Development potential (i.e., how many square feet of a certain use can be accommodated on a site) has a relatively high degree of variability. The intensity is regulated by the County's UDO, but also specific site constraints where the size and shape and environmental attributes can limit potential. A reasonable standard for one-story buildings is about 23%of an acre or 10,000 sq. ft. can be achieved on an acre. Again,there is variability due to parking, buffers, streams, etc. To illustrate, Morinaga purchased a 21-acre site and built 100,000 sq. ft., with expansion capability to 200,000 sq. ft. Gross acreage implies the total site size. However, net acreage is the reduced area size that is more usable for development. The ratio varies, but 20-30% "gross to net reduction" is common. Medline Industries purchased more acreage than was needed due setback requirements, coverage ratios and related land use restrictions, and due to the property sale arrangements unique to the site. Development potential and timing is also affected by the location of nearby developed smaller parcels consistent or inconsistent with the County's future land use plan, and property owners' interest to sell or not, depending on their choice. • 1,000 Acres—Gross • 80%-Gross/Net Reduction (Some lands are limited by development restrictions) • 800 Acres—Net • 10,000—12,000 sq.ft. per acre is typical. Some projects (such as the developer Al. Neyer currently building 580,000 square feet on 47 acres at West Ten Road & Buckhorn Road) are achieving 15,400 sq. ft. per acre. Note: Buildout will occur over time, but large aggregated parcels that have already been assembled have the most short-term potential. Approximately 420 acres are presently under contract or ownership with commercial developers.