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36 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n <br /> Q• <br /> Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((c"b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti <br /> CHCCS) y--projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o o increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (ACS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wavy Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year,%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> >v <br /> K„=kn.t+(kn.,*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average nm1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G„I g�r)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHGGS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> andlor historical growth rates membershi other than kindergarten); revious rade's membershi a=avera e ~ <br /> P( 9=p g P� 9 l <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> Kn=k�-t+(kmj*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 M. <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E G„1 gn.t)!5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the 4 <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g ,,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> b <br /> Kn=knA+(k�r'0.01) A <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate overthe previous 10 years for each a=(E Gn 19,1)1 10 Assumes a 1%v annual growth rate for the p <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same d <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average �{ <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership C <br /> rn <br />