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24 <br /> Slide #2 <br /> Background <br /> • 2017-Long Term Operating Model <br /> - Operating Model first used for FY 2018-19 Budget Development <br /> - Resource and modeling tool to determine Revenue and <br /> Expenditures under various economic conditions and scenarios <br /> - Guided County through COVID Recession <br /> - Maintained Unassigned Fund Balance Levels at 16%Policy <br /> • 2018-1-ong Term Oebt Model <br /> - Used to determine required tax rates to support Referendum <br /> Debtand other Capital Investment Plan projects <br /> - Integrates key Operating Model factors and policies;Assessed <br /> Valuation(fax Base)Growth,Value of One Penny,Debt Service <br /> as Percentage of Revenues,Total Tax-Supported Debt as <br /> Percentage of Assessed Value <br /> - Sensitivity Analyses Functiona lity <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> NOFM C CAROLINA <br /> Slide #3 <br /> OPERATING MODEL <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> NOFM I CAROLINA <br /> Slide #4 <br /> MnniCasr.Annual Forecasting Model <br /> • Create baseline andaltemativerevenueandspendingforecasts- <br /> more than 100 possible scenarios <br /> • Analyze historic trends and correlations between economic,financial <br /> and operating data <br /> • Test impact of assumptions and proposed initiatives on projected <br /> fund balances <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> .13OF 9I CAPOLSNA <br />