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50 <br /> Section II <br /> development is directly accounted for through the CAPS test. The CAPS test is conducted during <br /> the approval process at a certain stage and this step does project development impacts against <br /> rated capacity. Once students are enrolled in a school year, through annual reporting of student <br /> membership numbers, 10-year student projections can be updated to display future capacity <br /> needs in time to efficiently plan for future school construction requests. SAPFOTAC will <br /> continue to monitor and evaluate the demand and growth of residential development in Chapel <br /> Hill and Carrboro as well as its effect on student membership rates. <br /> Orange County School District <br /> Elementary <br /> The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 at this level were underestimated by <br /> 12 students. Actual membership decreased by 24 students. Over the previous ten years, this level <br /> experienced positive growth before experiencing decreases in 2014-15, 2016-17, and 2017-18. <br /> Following these decreases, this level experienced increases before experiencing a decrease in <br /> 2020-21 due to impacts from COVID. Growth rates during this period have ranged from-5.72% <br /> to +1.92%. Capacity was decreased in 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for <br /> kindergarten to third grade by the North Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional <br /> Elementary School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last <br /> year's projections. <br /> Although not included in SAPFO school capacity or membership numbers, Pre-K programs <br /> continue to impact operations at District elementary schools where Pre-K programs exist. OCS <br /> reported 125 Pre-K students for the 2021-22 school year. Specific impacts of Pre-K programs at <br /> the elementary school level continue to be reviewed and discussed. <br /> Middle <br /> The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 for this level were underestimated <br /> by 22 students. The actual membership increased by 2 students. Over the previous ten years, <br /> growth has varied widely with decreases in student membership in five of the ten school years. <br /> Growth rates during this period have ranged from -6.18%to+3.74%. The need for an additional <br /> Middle School is not anticipated in the 10-year projection period. This is similar to last year's <br /> projections. <br /> 32 <br />