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48 <br /> Section II <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory <br /> Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. <br /> Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the <br /> BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, <br /> Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See <br /> Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br /> and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year <br /> projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year <br /> percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were <br /> updated using current(November 15, 2021) memberships. Ten years of student <br /> membership were projected thereafter. <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> Elementary <br /> The previous year(2020-21)projections for November 2021 at this level were overestimated by <br /> 70 students. The actual membership decreased by 155 students. Over the previous ten years, <br /> this level has shown varying increases and decreases in growth rates. Following a significant <br /> increase (168 students) in 2011-12, this level has experienced a decrease in six out of the <br /> following nine school years. The level experienced a significant decrease in 2020-21 due to <br /> impacts from COVID. Growth rates during the past ten years have ranged from-8.76%to <br /> 30 <br />