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47 <br /> Section H Attachment IL13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 15, 2021) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all mixed ranging from 94 students below to 347 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 70 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 155 students between November 15, 2020and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 44 students to 110 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 72 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 115 students between November 15, 2020 and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all low, ranging from 1 students to 144 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 36 students below actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 8 students between November 15, 2020 and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 13 students to 291 <br /> students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 106 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 262 students, which is the sum of-155 at <br /> Elementary, -115 at Middle, and +8 at High. <br /> 29 <br />