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45 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.13.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2021-22) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2021-2022 School Year (November 15, 2021) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 63 students below to 105 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 12 students below actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 24 students between November 15, 2020 and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 58 students below to 27 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 22 students below actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increase by 2 students between November 15, 2020 and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all low, ranging from 166 students to 83 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 107 students below actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 91 students between November 15, 2020 and <br /> November 14, 2021. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 34 to 204 students <br /> below actual membership. On average, the projections were 141 students below actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 69 students, which is the sum of-24 at <br /> Elementary, +2 at Middle, and +91 at High. <br /> 27 <br />