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<br /> ■ Scenario 3: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates from 2010-
<br /> 2020, as certified in the 2020 SAPFO Report.
<br /> ■ Scenario 4: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates for 2021-
<br /> 2031, as certified in the 2020 SAPFO Report
<br /> Based on the four alternative projections, no capacity needs were identified in the 10-year
<br /> projection period for both districts. Outcomes (i.e. projected student membership, service levels,
<br /> and student growth rates) of the alternative projections are similar to 10-year projections
<br /> contained in previous SAPFO reports. The following tables provide a summary of the alternative
<br /> projections for the 2031-32 school year including average student membership numbers and
<br /> service levels. In addition, average student membership numbers and service levels from the
<br /> 2021-22 SAPFO projections are provided for comparison purposes. The 2021-22 SAPFO
<br /> projection sheets, contained on pages 36 and 37 of this report, are certified annually by the
<br /> Orange County Board of Commissioners. Spreadsheets of the alternative projections can be
<br /> rovided upon request.
<br /> . . - 1 TM W q mm
<br /> SAPFO Level of Service (LOS) and Building Capacity
<br /> Elerne tary Middle High
<br /> Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at
<br /> 100% LOS 105% LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS
<br /> 5,664 5,947 2,944 3,150 3,975 4,373
<br /> 2031-32 School Year
<br /> Elerne tary Middle High
<br /> Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of
<br /> Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service
<br /> Scenario 1 5,655 99.8% 3,038 103.2% 3,932 98.9%
<br /> Scenario 2 5,453 96.3% 2,904 98.6% 3,868 97.3%
<br /> Scenario 3 5,678 100.2% 3,108 105.6% 4,097 103.1%
<br /> Scenario 4 5,718 101.0% 3,103 105.4% 4,061 102.2%
<br /> 2021-22 4,333 76.5% 2,264 76.9% 3,169 79.7%
<br /> Projections*
<br /> SAPFO Level of Service (LOS) and Building Capacity
<br /> Elementa Middle High
<br /> Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at
<br /> 100% LOS 105% LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS
<br /> 3,361 3,529 2,166 2,318 2,939 3,233
<br /> 2031-32 School Year
<br /> Elementa Middle High
<br /> Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of
<br /> Membershi p Service Membership Service Membership Service
<br /> Scenario 1 3,454 102.8% 1,812 83.7% 2,440 83.0%
<br /> Scenario 2 3,165 94.2% 1,665 76.9% 2,313 78.7%
<br /> Scenario 3 3,453 102.7% 1,837 84.8% 2,532 86.2%
<br /> Scenario 4 3,516 104.6% 1,860 85.9% 2,556 87.0%
<br /> 2021-22 3,011 89.6% 1,539 71.1% 2,222 75.6%
<br /> Projections*
<br /> iv
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