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11 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 89.9%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase, but remain negative over <br /> the next 10 years (average—-0.04% compared to -0.71% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 76.5%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average— -0.72% compared to -0.23% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School <br /> in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 84.1%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average— -1.06% compared to 0.72% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Capacity has increased by 500 seats due to the Cedar Ridge High School addition. <br /> Projections are not showing a need for additional High School in the 10-year projection <br /> period. <br /> ADDITIONAL INFORMATION <br /> COVID Impacts <br /> Both school districts are still experiencing impacts from COVID due to a decrease in student <br /> membership as a result of students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in- <br /> person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a <br /> majority of these students will return when in-person learning commences on a stable basis. <br /> However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future <br /> student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs far beyond the 10- <br /> year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in <br /> planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff <br /> drafted hypothetical 2021-2022 student membership and grade level numbers in order to <br /> generate alternative 10-year student projections. <br /> Hypothetical student membership and grade level numbers were drafted based on SAPFO data <br /> from previous reports. Similar to last year's report, student membership and growth rates were <br /> based on the certified 2020 SAPFO Report. The purpose of this was to draft informal projections <br /> which may depict future student growth rates and service levels without the impacts from <br /> COVID. Staff believes the 10-year projections will correct themselves when students return to <br /> the classroom and student membership numbers increase to regular levels. Due to the <br /> requirements in the SAPFO MOUs, these projections cannot be certified,but may be <br /> documented in the annual report. Similar to the 2021-2022 SAPFO projections, the alternative <br /> projections utilize the same methodology contained in the SAPFO MOUs. The four alternative <br /> projections were based on the following scenarios and data: <br /> ■ Scenario 1: Draft 10-year projections using 2019 SAPFO student membership and grade <br /> level numbers for this school year. <br /> ■ Scenario 2: Draft 10-year projections using the average student membership and grade <br /> level numbers from 2015-2019 <br /> iii <br />