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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2021-2022 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2021-2022 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2021-2022 Membership <br /> Actual 2021 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3023 3283 H260 3198 HI 3278 H239 3281 H258 3011 L12 <br /> Middle 1656 1748 H92 1709 H53 1731 H75 1719 H63 1634 L22 <br /> High 2472 2559 H87 2474 H2 2388 L84 2415 L57 2365 L107 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- <br /> Made: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 <br /> Elementary 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% <br /> Middle 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% <br /> High 1 0% 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 83.7%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -.88%per year compared to -0.74% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 95.2%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -2.10% compared to an average of 0.72% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.1%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -2.15% compared to 0.79% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High <br /> School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 <br /> students in the 10-year projection period. <br /> ii <br />