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ORANGE COUNTY <br />BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br />WORK SESSION AGENDA REM ABSTRACT <br />Meeting Date: January 28, 2002 <br />Action A9043 <br />Item No. <br />SUBJECT Population and Demographic Update and Build-out Projections Using GIS <br />DEPARTMENT: Planning and Inspections PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No <br />ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br />Craig N. Benedict, ext. 2592 <br />Outline of maps and charts (Under Separate Cover <br />--to be distributed at meeting) <br />TELEPHONE NUMBERS: <br />Hillsborough 932-4181 <br />Chapel Hill 988-0801 <br />Durham 888-7331 <br />Mebane (338)2292031 <br />PURPOSE: To report the planning department's findings on population and demographics to the <br />SpeN of County Commissionere with a presentation consisting of three parts: <br />I. Population changes denied from 2000 census data <br />A. Orange County changes by ten-year periods, 1980-2000 <br />B. Orange County population baseline for 2000 <br />IL Population and housing linear projections through 2020 <br />A. Orange County projection by ten-year period from 1980-2020 using percentage growth <br />method <br />B. Orange County projection to 2040 using percentage growth method <br />III. Three different buildout scenanos and historical model of total population and dwelling units <br />based on various land use policy approaches to growth <br />A. Historical densities <br />B. Growth scenario I - maximum market rate growth model using existing land use densities <br />C. Gmi scenario 11- moderate growth model <br />D. Growth scenario III - restricted growth model <br />BACKGROUND: The county planning department is analyzing existing demographic components <br />and proposed conditions based on land use to develop a new comprehensive plan. As part of the <br />research process, a study of population and demographics has bean performed with scenarios that <br />illustrate potential growth patterns that can be guided through master land use planning and density <br />management The'GOOD' planning model was considered in the analysis. <br />FINANCIAL IMPACT: None. <br />RECOMMENDATION(S): Receive as information and provide comments.