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7 <br /> 1CM <br /> NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC CONDITION AND OUTLOOK, 3rd QUARTER 2021 <br /> Prepared by Dr. Michael L. Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus, <br /> Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,North Carolina State University. Released <br /> September 8, 2021. <br /> Contact Methods: phone: 919-219-8923; e-mail: michael walden(a)ncsu.edu <br /> RECESSION AND RECOVERY DURING THE PANDEMIC <br /> Summary <br /> 1. The North Carolina economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 recession. <br /> The worst of the recession was during Spring, 2020. When data become <br /> available, aggregate production (GDP)will have returned to pre-pandemic levels <br /> in Summer, 2021. <br /> 2. Among North Carolina's major economic sectors, the recession was most severe <br /> in farming, hospitality/leisure, transportation/warehousing, and personal <br /> services. <br /> 3. As of the first quarter of 2021, aggregate production had exceeded pre-recession <br /> levels in farming, construction, manufacturing, trade, and professional services. <br /> 4. Using the percentage loss in total employment as the measure, the Covid-19 <br /> recession was most severe in Rural North Carolina, and in the Asheville, <br /> Greensboro-High Point, Hickory, and Wilmington metropolitan areas. <br /> 5. As of July 2021, aggregate employment reached 99% or more of pre-pandemic <br /> employment in the Burlington, Durham-Chapel Hill, Greenville, Hickory, <br /> Jacksonville, and Raleigh metropolitan areas. <br /> 6. Although the state unemployment rate has fallen from close to 14% during the <br /> recession to almost 4% in Summer, 2021, the state's labor force participation <br /> rate is still well below its pre-pandemic levels. <br /> 1 <br />