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17 <br /> unemployment rate. The recovery from the Covid-19 recession could be called the "workerless <br /> recovery"based on the relatively large numbers of jobs that have gone unfilled. <br /> Potential reasons for the workerless recovery were presented earlier. Some of the reasons <br /> are temporary, meaning when they are no longer valid—such as the federal supplemental <br /> unemployment compensation—more jobless workers will seek jobs. But there's a longer run <br /> concern about the post-pandemic economy creating disruptions in job markets that will require <br /> on-going re-training for a significant number of workers. Ironically, the workerless recovery <br /> may accelerate this needed re-training as a result of businesses turning to technology and <br /> automation when they can't find workers. The more businesses that adopt technology and <br /> automation to substitute for labor will likely motivate other businesses to do the same. Hence, <br /> within a few years, the workerless recovery could turn into the jobless recovery. <br /> FORECASTS <br /> This section presents forecasts for North Carolina's aggregate production (GDP) and the <br /> state's unemployment rate. For each measure, two alternative forecasts are presented. One <br /> assumes the Covid-19 delta variant is controlled before the end of 2021, thereby allowing the <br /> economy to expand free of concerns about the virus. The second forecast is based on the <br /> pessimistic assumption that the delta variant continues, or is followed by another variant. Under <br /> this assumption economic progress is slower. <br /> Figure 8 shows the forecasts for North Carolina GDP. Under the optimistic assumption of <br /> the delta variant being controlled in 2021, GDP increases strongly in late 2021 and into 2022, <br /> setting new records for the size of the state economy. Growth continues in 2023 with GDP <br /> reaching $556 billion, 10%higher than prior to the pandemic in 2019. <br /> Using the pessimistic assumption of continuing struggles with the Covid-19 virus, state <br /> GDP does expand in the next two years, but GDP in 2023 will only be 5%higher than in the pre- <br /> pandemic years of 2019. <br /> Similar patterns and differences are seen for the state unemployment rate forecast in <br /> Figure 9. Compared to the 4.4%jobless rate in the summer of 2021, the optimistic forecast <br /> projects an employment rate of 4%in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023, still higher than the pre-pandemic <br /> rate of 3.5% in late 2019. Even with the pandemic under control, shifts in the types of jobs <br /> needed by employers will require substantial re-training, thereby keeping the jobless rate higher <br /> until the supply of skills meets the demand for skills. The pessimistic scenario has the jobless <br /> rate effectively flat for the next two years, rising slightly in 2022 and falling slightly in 2023. <br /> The shifts in occupational demand will be similar under both assumptions. Advances in <br /> the abilities of technology and automation to perform tasks will mean slow or negative growth in <br /> in low-skilled, physical jobs, especially those requiring minimal analysis and evaluation of the <br /> tasks. In contrast, the fastest growth will be in high-skilled, cognitive jobs in technology, health <br /> care, logistical, and professional jobs. Growth will also be strong in support jobs in these fields <br /> that require less training. <br /> 11 <br />