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44 <br /> Section II Attachment IL13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 12, 2020) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high ranging from 429 students to 505 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 463 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 470 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 114 students to 147 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 128 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 127 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 27 students to 90 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 53 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 8 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 619 students to 686 <br /> students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 644 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 605 students, which is the sum of-470 at <br /> Elementary, -127 at Middle, and -8 at High. <br /> 28 <br />