Agenda - 05-18-2021; 8-h - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2021 Report

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2 No change from previous ear Student Membership Projections ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average only) (p. 35) 35 and 36 ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Student Projections (row that notes average (Change from previous ear only) p. 36 Student Membership Growth Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 39 High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, (Change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools Student/Housing Generation Rate ■ Orange County Elementary, Middle, and 42 High Schools ■ Chapel Hill - Carrboro Elementary, No change from previous ear Middle, and High Schools COVID Impacts Both school districts have experienced decreases in student membership due to students being withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in-person learning or homeschooled. At this time, staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in- person learning commences. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building capacity needs far beyond the 10-year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2020-21 student membership and grade level numbers in order to generate alterative 10-year student projections. Additional information can be found on page iii of the Executive Summary. Changes in Class Size In 2018, the North Carolina General Assembly unveiled House Bill 90, which allows for a phasing-in process to address the decrease in class size averages over the next three school years. Based on House Bill 90, average class sizes for kindergarten to third grade will face a decrease from 1:20 to 1:19 for the 2019-2020 school year, 1:19 to 1:18 for the 2020-2021 school year, and 1:18 to 1:17 for the 2021-2022 school year. Reductions in class size averages may create elementary school capacity issues for the 2024-25 school year. FINANCIAL IMPACT: Current 10-year student growth projections show no future capacity needs for additional schools in the CHCCS District and OCS District. Implementation of class size legislation will likely require additional capacity at the elementary school level in a shorter time period. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: The following Orange County Social Justice Goal is applicable to this item: • GOAL: ENSURE ECONOMIC SELF-SUFFICIENCY The creation and preservation of infrastructure, policies, programs and funding necessary for residents to provide shelter, food, clothing and medical care for themselves and their dependents.