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<br /> ■ Scenario 3: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates from the
<br /> past 10 school years.
<br /> ■ Scenario 4: Draft 10-year projections using the average Student Growth Rates over the
<br /> next 10 school years.
<br /> Based on the four alternative projections, no capacity needs were identified in the 10-year
<br /> projection period for both districts. Outcomes (i.e. projected student membership, service levels,
<br /> and student growth rates) of the alternative projections are similar to 10-year projections
<br /> contained in previous SAPFO reports. The following tables provide a summary of the alternative
<br /> projections for the 2030-31 school year including average student membership numbers and
<br /> service levels. In addition, average student membership numbers and service levels from the
<br /> 2020-21 SAPFO projections are provided for comparison purposes. The 2020-21 SAPFO
<br /> projection sheets, contained on pages 35 and 36 of this report, are certified annually by the
<br /> Orange County Board of Commissioners. Spreadsheets of the alternative projections can be
<br /> provided upon request.
<br /> SAPFO Level of Service (LOS) and Building Capacity
<br /> Elerne tary Middle Hi h
<br /> Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at
<br /> 100%LOS 105%LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS
<br /> 5,664 5,947 2,944 3,150 3,975 4,373
<br /> 2030-31 School Year
<br /> Elerne tary Middle High
<br /> Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of
<br /> Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service
<br /> Scenario 1 5,688 100.4% 3,040 103.2% 3,954 99.5%
<br /> Scenario 2 5,751 101.5% 3,010 102.3% 3,948 99.3%
<br /> Scenario 3 5,724 101.1% 3,073 104.4% 4,009 100.9%
<br /> Scenario 4 5,738 101.3% 3,067 104.2% 3,987 100.3%
<br /> 2020-21 4,782 84.4% 2,505 85.1% 3,401 85.5%
<br /> Projections
<br /> SAPFO Level of Service LOS and Building Capacity
<br /> Elerne tary Middle High
<br /> Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at Capacity at
<br /> 100%LOS 105%LOS 100% LOS 107% LOS 100% LOS 110% LOS
<br /> 3,361 3,529 2,166 2,318 2,439 2,683
<br /> 2030-31 School Year
<br /> Elerne tary Middle Hi h
<br /> Average Level of Average Level of Average Level of
<br /> Membership Service Membership Service Membership Service
<br /> Scenario 1 3,478 103.5% 1,819 84.0% 2,444 83.2%
<br /> Scenario 2 3,413 101.6% 1,797 83.0% 2,434 82.8%
<br /> Scenario 3 3,492 103.9% 1,836 84.8% 2,471 84.1%
<br /> Scenario 4 3,516 104.6% 1,843 85.1% 2,477 84.3%
<br /> 2020-21 3,039 90.4% 1,545 71.4% 2,157 73.4%
<br /> Projections
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