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Quarterly Growth Rates 2021 GSP 13 <br /> in Forecasted Real GSP <br /> 5 Gross State Product(GSP) is forecast to reach a level of$601,384.7 million <br /> in 2021. Real (inflation-adjusted) GSP is expected to increase by 5.1 <br /> 4 percent over the 2020 level. This growth in 2021 will represent the first <br /> 3 4.8 <br /> year of growth since Covid-19. <br /> 4.4 4.3 <br /> 3.7 For 2021, first quarter GSP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate <br /> of 4.8 percent. During the second quarter, GSP is expected to increase by an <br /> 0 annualized real rate of 4.4 percent. In the third quarter, GSP is expected to <br /> 2021 I 2021 II 2021 III 2021 IV increase by an annualized real rate of 4.3 percent. In the fourth quarter of <br /> 2021, GSP is expected to increase by an annualized real rate of 3.7 percent. <br /> 2021 Highlights 2021 starts off after an unexpected weak fourth quarter of 2020. Consensus <br /> estimates going into the fourth quarter of 2020 was that real GDP would <br /> 2021* Percent growth between 6 and 8 percent. However, what was unexpected was <br /> Current Dollars Change <br /> Total Gross Product 601,384.7 6.2 another severe spike in cases during the last two months of the quarter. This <br /> resulted in fourth quarter real GDP dropping down to a 4.0 percent growth <br /> Constant(2012 Dollars) rate in the U.S. and an expected 3.9 percent rate in North Carolina. This <br /> Total Gross Product 525,293.6 5.1 experience provide a cautionary note for economists looking forward. <br /> Agricultural 5,484.7 9.2 <br /> Mining 614.8 -2.5 While we like to think that driving components of the economy will dictate <br /> Construction 17,672.6 3.6 future growth,we have to realize that the Covid virus will do what it will do <br /> Manufacturing 93,832.6 5.3 and have an overriding impact on future economic activity. <br /> Durable Goods 43,155.0 6.0 <br /> Nondurable Goods 50,677.6 4.7 <br /> TWU 19,704.0 3.1 Going forward, the good news is that during the first quarter of 2021 the <br /> Wholesale Trade 31,514.5 5.6 fourth quarter Covid virus spike seems to be subsiding. As vaccination rates <br /> Retail Trade 30,808.0 6.7 <br /> Information 23,852.6 5.9 rise and the weather starts to warm, it is likely that for a while the Covid <br /> FIRE 97,024.4 4.2 virus will not be the driving force in the economy. North Carolina real GDP <br /> B&P 70,531.2 4.8 should recover to pre-pandemic levels by the second quarter of 2021. <br /> E&H 42,869.3 7.2 <br /> H&L 15,113.0 15.2 However, employment level and the unemployment rate will take much <br /> Services 9,393.7 5.1 longer to recover. North Carolina nonagricultural employment should get <br /> Government 66,878.2 2.5 back to pre-pandemic levels by December of 2021. However, the state's <br /> unemployment rate will not get back to full employment (4.0 percent) until <br /> late 2022. <br /> *Millions of dollars <br />