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54 <br /> EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Page 131 <br /> Enrollment Trends and Forecast <br /> Prior to this year, the District had seen steady enrollment growth over the last 10 years with <br /> average growth just under 1% each year. This year's enrollment is much more complicated than <br /> in previous years. The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced major uncertainty for families <br /> around the District, and it is difficult to predict how many students will return to our schools in <br /> the new school year. The graph below highlights the overall trend of student enrollment across <br /> the last 10 years: <br /> 14,000 <br /> 13,500 <br /> 13,000 <br /> 12,500 <br /> 12,000 / <br /> a� <br /> W 11,500 <br /> 11,000 <br /> L <br /> a� <br /> on <br /> 10,500 <br /> a� <br /> Q <br /> 10,000 <br /> 9,500 <br /> 9,000 <br /> 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 <br /> ADM 11,629 11,905 12,094 12,138 12,076 11,965 12,113 12,239 12,296 12,270 11,764 12,351 <br /> *if adopted at the projected FY2021-22 adjusted level of 12,351 ADM <br /> The District adopts its budget for the upcoming year in June based on what the projected <br /> enrollment is at that time. The actual number of students enrolled is taken on the 40th school day <br /> of the year. The table below shows the prior year's adopted enrollment, the prior year's 40th Day <br /> enrollment, and the State's initial projection of enrollment: <br /> FY21 40th Day to FY22 <br /> Projection <br /> FY 2021 FY 2021 FY 2022 <br /> Adopted 40th Day Projected <br /> Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Change Percent <br /> Elementary School 5,307 4,926 5,246 320 6.50% <br /> Middle School 3,870 3,909 3,128 (781) -19.98% <br /> High School 3,072 2,912 4,059 1,147 39.39% <br /> Other 30 17 20 3 17.65% <br /> Total 12,279 11,764 12,453 689 5.86% <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools-FY 2021-22 Recommended Budget empower <br /> inspire <br />