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44 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2020-21) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2020-2021 School Year (November 13, 2020) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C)3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 194 students to 239 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 220 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 185 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 32 students to 119 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 74 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 109 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 8 students to 31 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 20 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 16 students between November 16, 2019 and <br /> November 13, 2020. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 291 students to 351 <br /> students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 314 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 310 students, which is the sum of-185 at <br /> Elementary, -109 at Middle, and -16 at High. <br /> 26 <br />