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11 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 90.7%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average— -0.02% compared to 0.09% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 76.4%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average— -0.67% compared to 0.59% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School <br /> in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 97.6%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average— -0.98% compared to 0.81% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Cedar Ridge High <br /> School from the initial capacity of 1,000 students to 1,500 students in the 10-year <br /> projection period. <br /> ADDITIONAL INFORMATION <br /> COVID Impacts <br /> Both school districts have experienced decreases in student membership due to students being <br /> withdrawn and enrolled in private schools with in-person learning or homeschooled. At this time, <br /> staff believes these are temporary impacts and a majority of these students will return when in- <br /> person learning commences. However, the loss of students has impacted the SAPFO 10-year <br /> projections by decreasing future student growth rates and service levels and pushing building <br /> capacity needs far beyond the 10-year projection period. Recognizing concerns with these <br /> projections not being constructive in planning for the future or when students return to the <br /> classroom, Orange County Planning staff drafted hypothetical 2020-21 student membership and <br /> grade level numbers in order to generate alternative 10-year student projections. <br /> Hypothetical student membership and grade level numbers were drafted based on SAPFO data <br /> from previous reports. The purpose of this was to draft informal projections which may depict <br /> future student growth rates and service levels without the impacts from COVID. Staff believes <br /> the 10-year projections will correct themselves when students return to the classroom and student <br /> membership numbers increase to regular levels. Due to the requirements in the SAPFO MOUs, <br /> these projections cannot be certified,but may be documented in the annual report. Similar to the <br /> 2020-21 SAPFO projections, the alternative projections utilize the same methodology contained <br /> in the SAPFO MOUs. The four alternative projections were based on the following scenarios and <br /> data: <br /> ■ Scenario 1: Draft 10-year projections using 2019 SAPFO student membership and grade <br /> level numbers for this school year(2020-21). <br /> ■ Scenario 2: Draft 10-year projections using the average student membership and grade <br /> level numbers from the previous five school years (2015-2019). <br /> iii <br />