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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2020-2021 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2020-2021 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2020-2021 Membership <br /> Actual 2020 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3047 3390 H343 3267 H220 3186 H139 3262 H215 3267 H220 <br /> Middle 1654 1790 H136 1765 H111 1730 H76 1737 H83 1728 H74 <br /> High 2381 2604 H223 2539 H158 2456 H75 2371 H10 2401 H2O <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- <br /> Made: 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 <br /> Elementary 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% -0.23% 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% -0.02% <br /> Middle 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% -1.50% 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% -0.67% <br /> High 1 0.72% 0% 0.16% 0.03% -1.44% 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% -0.98% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 86.4%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -0.23%per year compared to 0.29% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard(current LOS is 99.1%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -1.50% compared to an average of 1.19% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 98.9%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average- -1.44% compared to 0.90% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Capacity has increased by 100 seats due to renovations at Chapel Hill High School. <br /> Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need to expand Carrboro High <br /> School from the initial capacity of 800 students to the ultimate capacity of 1,200 <br /> students in the 10-year projection period. <br /> ii <br />