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445 <br /> PLANNING & INSPECTIONS DEPARTMENT <br /> Craig N. Benedict, AICP, Director <br /> Administration 131 W. Margaret Lane <br /> (919) 245-2575 Suite 201 <br /> (919) 644-3002 (FAX) ORANGE COUNTY P. O. Box 8181 <br /> www.orangecountync.gov NORTH CAROLINA Hillsborough, NC 27278 <br /> MEMORANDUM <br /> TO: Craig Benedict, Orange County Planning Director <br /> Michael Harvey, Current Planning Supervisor <br /> FROM: Nishith Trivedi, Orange County Transportation Planner <br /> CC. Tom Altieri, Comprehensive Planning Supervisor <br /> Tom Ten Eyck, Transportation/Land Use Planner II <br /> DATE: August 11, 2020 <br /> SUBJECT: Future Davis Road and Old NC-86 due to development <br /> Attachment: Staff Assessment <br /> This memorandum is to provide an update on Davis Road and Old NC-86 as potential <br /> planned developments continue to 2045. <br /> North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) maintains Davis Road (SR-1129) <br /> as part of their Secondary Road system. It is functionally classified as a local collector with <br /> a maximum capacity of approximately 9,000 (average annual daily traffic or AADT) or the <br /> maximum vehicles it can hold per day. When roads exceed this capacity, driver comfort <br /> deteriorates. NCDOT typically measures capacity based on the roads lane width, speed <br /> limit, functional classification, and other factors. NCDOT started monitoring traffic volume <br /> along this road in 1993 and reports a gradual traffic increase from 1,300 AADT in 2002 to <br /> 1,900 AADT in 2016. <br /> Currently, Davis road is only being utilized at 21% of its full capacity based on 2016 traffic <br /> volume (e.g. 1,900 AADT volume / 9,000 AADT capacity). The proposed Research Triangle <br /> Logistic Part (RTLP) Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) assumes a 1% growth rate (section 5.1) <br /> versus the 3.3% annual growth based on current trends. With an annual traffic increase of <br /> 3.3%, usage of Davis Road is growing. However, traffic on Davis Road will not reach <br /> anywhere near its 9,000 AADT capacity. Even if development of any kind does not occur in <br /> this area, traffic will continue increasing along Davis Road. Davis Road is not anywhere <br /> near capacity (even if the project was in place tomorrow), and Old NC 86 only exceeds <br /> capacity if all potential county developments were fully built at the same time. <br /> The Orange County transportation network is part of the triangle area travel demand model, <br /> referred to here as Triangle Regional Model (TRM). It is adopted every 4 years as part of <br /> the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (DCHC MPO) <br /> Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). The MTP is a fiscally-constrained plan that is <br /> federally required for all MPOs. TRM Version 6 (2045 MTP) was adopted in 2019. The <br /> TRM estimates future traffic volume on local and regional state-maintained roads brought <br /> on by development in accordance with local land use regulations. TRM capacities are <br /> conservative compared to state capacity standards, especially on local collectors. <br />