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6 <br /> 2020 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br /> I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br /> A. Level of Service ....................................................................(No Change)........Pg. 1 <br /> Chapel Hil[/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Elementary 105% 105% <br /> Middle 107% 107% <br /> High 110% 110% <br /> B. Building Capacity and Membership ..................................(Change)..............Pg. 2 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from <br /> Prior Year Prior Year <br /> Elementary 5664 5363 108 3361 3232 27 <br /> Middle 2944 3044 111 2166 1763 (16) <br /> High 3875 3940 8 2439 2397 48 <br /> C. Membership Date—November 15.......................................(No Change)........Pg. 17 <br /> II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br /> A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) ...........................................(No Change)........Pg. 18 <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology.................(No Change)........Pg. 19 <br /> The average of 3, 5,and 10 year history/cohort survival,linear and arithmetic projection models. <br /> C. Student Membership Projections.......................................(Change)..............Pg. 29 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2019-2020 School Year—Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2019-2020 in that given year.The second column for each year <br /> includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the <br /> actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2019-2020 Membership <br /> Actual2019 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 5363 5839 H476 5634 H271 5658 H295 5467 H104 5448 H85 <br /> Middle 3044 3058 H14 2995 L49 2977 L67 2936 L108 2962 L82 <br /> High 3940 3979 H39 3857 L83 3864 L76 3930 L10 3948 H8 <br /> i <br />