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52 <br /> Section H <br /> A Student Membership Growth Rate <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual <br /> report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections <br /> resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical <br /> membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not <br /> represent the year-by- year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the <br /> average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> The membership figures and percentage The membership figures and percentage <br /> growth on the attachments show continued growth on the attachments show <br /> growth at each school level within the continued growth at each school level <br /> system. Projected Average Annual Growth within the system. Projected Average <br /> Rate over next ten years: Annual Growth Rate over next ten years: <br /> School Year Projection Made School Year Projection Made <br /> 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- <br /> Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 <br /> Elementary 0.92% 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% Elementary 0.80% 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% <br /> Middle 0.82% 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% Middle 0.67% 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% <br /> High 1 0.93% 1 0.72% 1 0% 0.16% 0.03% 1 1 High 1 0.56% 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% <br /> 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. <br /> 38 <br />