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42 <br /> Section II Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2019-20) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2019-2020 School Year (November 15, 2019) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high ranging from 54 students to 149 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 85 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 108 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all low, ranging from 19 students to 136 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 82 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 111 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 46 students below to 115 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 8 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 8 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 64 students below to <br /> 82 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 11 students <br /> higher than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 11 students, which is the sum of-108 at <br /> Elementary, +111 at Middle, and +8 at High. <br /> 28 <br />