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40 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.13.3 —Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2019-20) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2019-2020 School Year (November 15, 2019) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • The projections were all low, ranging from 15 students to 35 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 19 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 27 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all high, ranging from 10 students to 45 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 27 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 16 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> High School Level <br /> • The majority of projections all low, ranging from 12 students to 79 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 49 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 48 students between November 16, 2018 and <br /> November 15, 2019. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were low, ranging from 19 students to 69 <br /> students below actual membership. On average, the projections were 41 students lower <br /> than the actual membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 59 students, which is the sum of +27 at <br /> Elementary, -16 at Middle, and +48 at High. <br /> 26 <br />