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38 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2018-19) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro School District <br /> School Membership 2018-2019 School Year (November 15, 2018) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were all high ranging from 4 students to 85 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 38 students higher than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 51 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were all low, ranging from 7 students to 85 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 44 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 100 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 48 students below to 19 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 17 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 5 students between November 16, 2017 and <br /> November 15, 2018. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The majority of all school level projections were low, ranging from 9 students to 65 <br /> students below actual membership. One projection was 21 students above the actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 23 students lower than the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership increased in total by 54 students, which is the sum of-51 at <br /> Elementary, +100 at Middle, and +5 at High. <br /> 24 <br />