Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
34 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS <br /> O <br /> Tischler Linear(OCS& y=((c*b)*x)+b <br /> Mathematical formula;straight line projection Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br /> CHCCS) y-projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BYl+S(n))=EYM EYM*%$L=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-yearaverage; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYl=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school c u increase in BY!of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> BYM+(8YI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYl=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o loSL decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; =c total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per Schaal level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> K.=k n•€+(k.-I 0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ G I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n€(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> Kn=k n-1+(k„rr*0,01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(£ Gn 1 gn.r)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n•€(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> Kn=kn.,+ k„.€*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(£ Gn I gn,)110 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=9 n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br />