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9 <br /> Commissioner Dorosin said children are leaving to go to charter schools, and the actual <br /> enrollment in the school system is impacted, and asked if this is accounted for. <br /> Craig Benedict said yes, and the projections of development in the area would probably <br /> show under other circumstances, without charter schools, a higher enrollment. He said both <br /> school districts show less than would appear under normal circumstances; therefore, the <br /> projections of growth are more muted moving into future years. <br /> Commissioner Dorosin said that answer does not account for expansion of charter <br /> schools (from K-8 to K-12), which would have an impact that is not accounted for looking <br /> backwards. <br /> Craig Benedict said that is correct. He said that shows up in those cohort projections. <br /> Craig Benedict said staff acknowledges charter school and pre-K enrollment in the <br /> annual SAPFO report, but this is a sidebar to the model and the MOU as written. <br /> Commissioner Marcoplos said after middle schools, there is an influx of charter schools <br /> students into the high schools. <br /> Craig Benedict said that does show up, and staff can plot out the entire high school <br /> enrollment and see how it has changed over the years. He said middle schools show higher <br /> graduation rates, between 8th and 9th grades, which reflect these types of influxes. <br /> Craig Benedict resumed the PowerPoint presentation: <br /> Student Capacity and Projections (chart) <br /> Impacts from Class Size Changes: Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (graphic) <br /> Commissioner McKee asked if the 534-seat loss includes the impact of Pre-K <br /> Craig Benedict said it does not. He said there was enough capacity in CHCCS to <br /> accommodate class size changes over the allotted time, and to absorb the loss of the 534 <br /> seats. He said it does bring the need for a new school much closer, which had previously been <br /> 10+ years out. <br /> Commissioner Dorosin asked if these numbers assume that all other class sizes will <br /> remain constant, as opposed to increasing 4th grade, etc. <br /> Craig Benedict said yes. <br /> Commissioner Price asked if the 534-seat number was determined in some particular <br /> way. <br /> Craig Benedict said staff went school-by-school, working with school board staff, and did <br /> the numbers for K through 3rd grade, 4th grade and 5th grade. He said this information is in the <br /> Commissioners' packets. He said there are 165 classrooms in K-3, and the amount of capacity <br /> will go down as the class size restrictions are fully implemented. <br /> Impacts from Class Size Changes: Orange County Schools (graphic) <br /> Commissioner Dorosin asked if, to date, the County has ever had to restrict <br /> development due to SAPFP predictions. <br /> Craig Benedict said no, this has never occurred. He said staff sometimes sees that it <br /> may occur in a few years, and a developer can load the development over a period of time. He <br /> said staff refines the model each year, and it has never been a problem, to date. <br /> Options to Implement Class Size Ratios <br /> A. Options which have been eliminated by SJAC: <br /> 1. Allow SAPFO to implement cessation of CAPS issuance (would stop issuance of <br /> building permits) <br />