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47 <br /> Section II <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br /> certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level <br /> (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill/Carrboro City <br /> School District and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> II.B (Student Projection Methodology) II.B (Student Projection Methodology) <br /> See Attachment II.C.4 See Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show an increase <br /> at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' middle and high school levels and at the <br /> Orange County Schools' elementary and high school level. The attachments show a <br /> decrease at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' elementary school level and <br /> Orange County Schools' middle school level. The majority of Chapel Hill/Carrboro <br /> Schools and Orange County Schools projected average annual growth rates have all <br /> decreased since the previous year, except the elementary school levels in both <br /> districts which have experienced an increase. The majority of projected annual <br /> growth rates show positive growth for the three levels in the 10-year projection <br /> period. However,the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' middle school level shows a <br /> negative growth rate in the 10-year projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and <br /> Attachment II.C.4 show year by year percent growth and projected level of service <br /> (LOS). The projection models were updated using current(November 15, 2019) <br /> memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. <br /> 29 <br />