Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
38 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS <br /> Tischier Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight tine projection y=((c*b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br /> CHCCS) y-projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> SYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o increase m BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /oSL=u total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*°/oSL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BYI of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> K„=k„.€+(k„.1*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E G I girl)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g„_1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> andfor historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> K„=k„-t+(km, 0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(f G„1 g„.1)/5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g„-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> K„=k„.1+(k„.1*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E G„I g„.1)/10 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br />