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11 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2019-2020 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2019-2020 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2019-2020 Membership <br /> Actual 2019 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3232 3227 L5 3332 171100 3230 L2 3154 L78 3213 L19 <br /> Middle 1763 1848 H85 1846 H83 1824 H61 1794 H31 1790 H27 <br /> High 2397 2579 H182 2559 H162 2474 H77 2416 H19 2348 L49 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 38 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- <br /> Made: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 <br /> Elementary 0.92% 0.91% 0.36% 0.56% 0.65% 0.80% 0.51% 0.58% 0.91% 0.84% <br /> Middle 0.82% 0.95% 0.21% 0.19% -0.07% 0.67% 0.36% 0.13% 0.28% 0.37% <br /> High 0.93% 0.72% 0% 0.16% 0.03% 0.56% 0.22% -0.10% 0.21% 0.21% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 41 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILLICARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 94.7%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase and remain positive <br /> over the next 10 years (average-0.65%per year compared to 0.33% over the past 10 <br /> years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 103.4%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average--0.07% compared to an average of 0.85% over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year, projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 101.7%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years <br /> (average-0.03% compared to 0.82% over the past 10 years). <br /> ii <br />