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Jordan Lake Water Supply Allocation <br />January 2001 <br />Page 3 of 6 <br /> Raw Water Supply, Demand, and Defic it Fo recas ts <br /> 20 <br />.--. .. <br />.. <br />~ 18 <br /> <br />~ <br /> 16 <br /> <br /> <br />~ 14 <br /> -- <br /> <br /> 12 <br />0 <br /> <br /> 10 <br /> s <br />~, <br />~. <br />6 <br />~ <br /> 4 <br /> <br /> 1980 1990 2000 2 010 2 020 2 030 <br />Notes: <br />Individual dots represent historic raw water demands by .fiscal year. <br />Upper, middle, and lower diverging lines correspond to High, Expected, and Low demand <br />forecasts developed in the Master Plan. <br />Heavy, step-shaped line represents raw water supply available at specified time. <br />Shaded areas represent potential raw water supply deficits under indicated conditions of demand. <br />Supply capacities (in mgd) are expressed as 50-year sustainable yield. <br />Sources of Uncertain <br />Future water supply and demand scenarios are subject to major unknowns and uncertainties. <br />Changes in underlying conditions or assumptions on which the forecasts have been based can <br />result in substantial changes to future scenarios. <br />Service Area Growth and Demand - OWASA's demand forecasts are based on an array of <br />specific expectations, including the assumption that its utility service area, defined as the Urban <br />Services Area delineated by the CarrboraChapel Hill-Orange County Joint Planning <br />Agreement, will remain unchanged: OWASA's water demand forecasts also assume that the <br />limited amount of land available for future growth and development under existing local policies <br />will result in service area "buildaut" sometime during the next 50 years, but neither the rate nar <br />3 BG Quarry Reservoir (19.4 mgd) ............ ........... ............. ............, ............. ..... <br /> <br />Con veyance Upgrad es (14 3 mgd) <br /> . <br /> <br />d) <br />stem (11 <br />1 m <br />Bustin <br />S i <br />. <br />g <br />g <br />y <br /> ,,. <br /> <br />.. .. <br />. <br />...• <br />12 <br />