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14 <br /> MPO Board 10/9/2019 Item 8 <br /> Ref: 38587.01 <br /> October 1, 2019 <br /> Page 8 <br /> Greensboro, Dairyland,Albert, and Union Grove Church Roads, as well as M.L.K.Jr Boulevard. Reductions <br /> to 1-40 traffic, although larger in absolute terms, represent less than 1%of average daily traffic. <br /> Other <br /> • Some feedback questioned whether volumes on rural roads such as Arthur-Minnis and Bradshaw Quarry <br /> would actually increase in response to increased congestion on NC 54, given the nature of these roads. <br /> While there is no way to be absolutely certain,these are the findings based on the Triangle Regional Model, <br /> developed and approved by NCDOT and local agencies for use in transportation planning.These findings <br /> appear reasonable in light of relative travel times and distances. However, if future traffic does not divert to <br /> these roads, most of it would remain on NC 54, with a portion shifting to 1-40. In that case,traffic volumes <br /> on NC 54 would be even higher in the No-Build scenario than in our analysis,while volumes in the Build <br /> scenario would be the same. The end result would be a smaller difference in volumes between the Build <br /> and No-Build scenarios. <br /> HISTORICAL TRENDS <br /> Historical trend analysis is not especially useful in forecasting traffic volumes along this segment of NC 54. Attempts <br /> were made to correlate changes in annual average daily traffic (AADT) along the Orange County portion of NC 54 to <br /> population changes in the vicinity of the corridor.The only consistent population estimates available are for <br /> counties, municipalities, and townships from 2009 through 2017. <br /> Figure 15 shows the jurisdictions used for population estimates.These areas are generally too large for the purposes <br /> of this type of analysis, and neither the estimates nor the AADTs appear to be precise enough. Lagged correlations <br /> did not perform significantly better. In aggregate, however, populations and AADTs were generally consistent, with <br /> population growing by 16%and AADTs by 15% between 2009 and 2017 (see Figure 16). Based on TRM and PTRM <br /> forecasts (and consistent with NC OSBM forecasts), populations in these jurisdictions are estimated to increase by <br /> 42% between 2017 and 2045.This study forecasts a corresponding 40% increase in traffic on the Orange County <br /> portion of the NC 54 West study corridor(see Figure 17). <br /> Observations <br /> • Although population and traffic volume trends could not be strongly correlated on an annual or time-series <br /> basis, overall growth rate trends are reasonably consistent. <br /> TRANSIT <br /> There is currently no fixed-route transit service along NC 54 west of Old Fayetteville Road.To gain a better <br /> understanding of historical transit service,future transit plans, and anticipated effects of emerging transportation <br /> technologies, interviews were conducted with four transit agencies in the region, with emphasis on fixed-route <br /> service,versus paratransit: <br /> Page 8 of 12 <br />