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13 <br /> MPO Board 10/9/2019 Item 8 <br /> Ref: 38587.01 <br /> October 1, 2019 <br /> Page 7 <br /> the model's over-assignment of traffic to West Main Street (discussed above). An 80%/20% (4:1) split between NC <br /> 54 Bypass and West Main Street was assumed. <br /> A comparison of the daily volumes from the 2045 Build and No-Build scenarios west of Old Fayetteville Road is <br /> shown in Figure 14 to illustrate the shifts in network traffic assignments associated with the widening, according to <br /> the TRM. Historical volumes and 1%and 1.5%annual volume growth rates are displayed, and the typical capacities <br /> of a 2-lane roadway and a 4-lane divided roadway are indicated to provide context for the road's current and <br /> anticipated performance. <br /> Observations <br /> Volume Increases <br /> • As traffic volumes increase on NC 54, longer segments exceed capacity for longer time periods.Travel times <br /> increase, while also becoming less reliable due to crashes, weather events, and other incidents. In response, <br /> some traffic shifts to alternate routes. When NC 54 is widened, congestion and resulting delays and <br /> variations are reduced, and these trips return to NC 54, which should also reduce crashes. <br /> • The most significant volume shifts are on NC 54. The 2,000 veh/day added between Dodson's Crossroads <br /> and Old Fayetteville Road represent about a 10% increase over the No-Build scenario. The resulting volume <br /> is well within the capacity of the proposed 4-lane divided cross section. Assuming 10%of traffic occurs in the <br /> peak hour, with a 60/40 directional split, this translates into about 200 additional vehicles in the peak hour, <br /> with 120 vehicles (two/minute) added in the peak direction. <br /> • Traffic shifts back onto NC 54 decrease to the west, both on an absolute and a percentage basis.To the east, <br /> about 200 vehicles/day are added to West Main Street, and 1000 to the NC 54 Bypass. About one-third of <br /> these are added to South Columbia Street traffic, half continue on the Bypass, and the remainder are <br /> oriented southward. <br /> • Orange Grove Road and Mebane Oaks Road experience smaller increases from traffic that would have <br /> headed north to 1-40 or used rural roads (such as Arthur-Minnis and Bradshaw Quarry)for east-west trips. <br /> Some of these trips appear to be shifted from Old NC 86/Hillsborough Road, Union Grove Church Road, and <br /> even M.L.K.Jr Boulevard. Minor traffic increases occur on segments of Eubanks, Bethel-Hickory Grove <br /> Church, Butler, and White Cross Roads. <br /> • Both the Build and No-Build scenarios exceed the capacity of the 2-lane existing roadway across a range of <br /> growth rate estimates. <br /> Volume Reductions <br /> • Overall,traffic reductions resulting from the proposed NC 54 widening are more dispersed than the traffic <br /> increases.There is a noticeable reduction in east-west traffic along Arthur-Minnis, Bradshaw Quarry, and <br /> New Hope Church Roads. North-south traffic on Old NC 86/Hillsborough Road and Old Fayetteville Road also <br /> decreases.The most significant decrease is 800 vehicles/day along the segment of Old NC 86 between <br /> Dairyland/Homestead Roads and Old Fayetteville Road. Minor reductions occur on portions of Old <br /> Page 7 of 12 <br />