Agenda - 04-15-2001-10a - Laserfiche WebLink

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ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: May 15, 2001 Action Agenda Item No. I~~ SUBJECT: Follow-up Report on Student Population Projections DEPARTMENT: County Manager/Budget/ PUBLIC HEARING: (Y/N) No Planning ATTACHMENT(S): Student Projection Graphs (under separate cover) INFORMATION CONTACT; - Rod Visser, ext 2300 Donna Dean, ext 2151 Crai Benedict, ext 2592 TELEPHONE NUMBERS: Hillsborough 732-8181 Chapel HiII 9fi8-4501 Durham 688-7331 Mebane 336-227-2031 PURPOSE: To review and consider additional information requested by the BOCC regarding the results of various methods of projecting future increases in the student population in the Orange County Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools. BACKGROUND: At their April 30, 2001 budget work session, the Board of Commissioners received a report an the number of students expected to need seats at the elementary, middle, and high school level of both school systems for each year through FY 2010-11. Detailed graphs were presented depicting the results of several alternative projection methods ("tools") that were prepared by school staffs, County staff, and external consultants. The Board directed the Manager to convene a meeting with the two Superintendents to develop additional data regarding several projection methods. Several observations noted at the April 30 work session are repeated here. One observation is that time will be the best measure of which projection method proves to be the mast accurate. There is no clearly superior tool to be relied upon primarily out of the various approaches demonstrated. Given that, there is a solid basis for assuming that the timing of the need for various new school facilities based on the projected increases in student population will fall into a fairly narrow "bracket" of several years. For example, one or two projection methods might indicate the need for a new school atone level in 2004, while one or two others might suggest the need to have that new school open instead in 2005 or 200$. In response to various Commissioner requests at the April 30 work session, staff will present an updated set of student projection graphs that reflect the following information, in addition to that presented in the April 30 version of these graphs: • Projections based on Fall 2001 enrollments, plus the potential additional space needs that could be created if charter school students were to leave those charters and enroll in either OCS or CHCCS. A projection line for this "tool" was shown on the April 30 graph for OC5