Orange County NC Website
<br />For the past two years, OWASA staff have participated in active discussions with staff of both <br />Durham and Chatham County about potential joint ventures in withdrawal, transmission, and <br />treatment facilities, including the possible creation of a Jordan Lake water development <br />authority. We have kept the OWASA Boazd of Directors well apprised of these discussions and <br />opportunities, but they have not yet benefited from a full discussion with other leaders of the <br />community, so it is premature to speculate on their eventual outcome. <br />OWASA will provide more detailed plans to the Environmental Management Commission <br />(EMC) for its use of Jordan Lake water as these options.aze more fully developed in the months <br />to come. <br />The OWASA Boazd has discussed the application process extensively and requests that I convey <br />their keen interest in retaining a substantial portion of our 10 MGD ,Level II allocation. A critical <br />element of OWASA's mission of providing an adequate supply of high quality drinking water <br />has been maintaining a reliable range of long-term options for the future. Jordan Lake has <br />always represented an important hedge against an uncertain future -and, as you well know -- <br />future water supply and demand scenarios are subject to major unknowns and uncertainties. <br />Changes in underlying conditions or assumptions on which forecasts aze based can result in <br />radical changes to future scenarios. The Board of Directors has asked me shaze with you some <br />of the major uncertainties inherent in OWASA's future supply and demand scenarios: <br />.Service Area Growth and Demand--Our demand forecasts are based on an array of specific <br />expectations, including the assumption that OWASA's service area, defined as the Urban <br />Services Area delineated in the Carrboro-Chapel Hill-grange County Joint Planning <br />Agreement, will remain unchanged. OWASA's water demand forecasts also assume that the <br />limited amount of land available for future growth and development under existing local policies <br />will result in service area "buildout" sometime during the next 50 years. At that time, the <br />historic trend of increasing water demands would level off at a demand of between 1 d and 22 <br />MGD. We note that the demand forecasting methods prescribed for these draft applications da <br />not provide for any variation from the forecast demand curves. OWASA's own analyses include <br />"high" and "low" bands of uncertainty that vary approximately 10 percent above and below the <br />"expected growth" line. <br />Rate of Quarry Expansion and Ultimate Capacity--The ultimate yield of the extended Quarry <br />Reservoir will depend on its water storage capacity. OWASA's sustainable yield projections aze <br />based on a final capacity of 3 billion gallons (BG). The current capacity of American Stone's <br />active quarry is approximately 1 billion gallons. OWASA's existing Quarry Reservoir has a <br />storage volume of 0:2 bg. American Stone's agreement with OWASA contains a "due <br />diligence" commitment to maintain rock production at an average rate of b50,000 tons per year, <br />which corresponds to a quarry pit volume increase of O.OGS billion gallons per year. At this rate, <br />quarry volume will increase by 1..95 bg over the next 30 years, providing a total volume of <br />slightly more than 3 BG. If-due to economic conditions, mazket competition, or changes in <br />corporate policy -- American Stone's production activity decreased below this level, or if the <br />company went out of business and stopped production altogether, then the usable storage volume <br />and resulting water supply yield would be less than what has been projected. <br />