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~9~ <br />:I <br />~'~~-'~= THE JOHN R. McADAMS COMPANY, INC. <br />Da«~n Da~~i~ H~ric, AICP <br />Director <br />Land P!annir~j ,;roux <br />MEIVIOR.ANDUM <br />October 3, 2000 <br />To: Craig Benedict <br />Orange County Planning Department <br />From: Dawn Heric ~~ <br />Re: The Preserve <br />NAT-00000 <br />As you requested, eve have made some preliminary school enrollment projections <br />for The Preserve. The projections are very simplistic and based on the project <br />proceeding in regular increments from a starting year of 2002 until completion in <br />2010 (the build-out year used in the Traffic Impact Analysis). <br />Our projections are based on "Economic Impacts of Residential Construction" by <br />Dr. 1Vlichael Walden, a study commissioned by the North Carolina Home Builders <br />Association, which establishes rates for projecting school enrollment. For <br />determining percentages of students attending elementary, middle and high <br />schools, we used your method of assigning 50% to elementary school and 25% <br />each to middle and high schools. <br />The Walden study identifies the ratio of school-aged children per household to be <br />0.33. This number is derived from 1990 Census information for the Triangle area, <br />which considers not only the ages and number of children per household, but also <br />the number of children that are home-schooled or attend private school. <br />Total Number of Dtivellina Units .................................................................... 611 <br />Begin construction .........................................................................................2002 <br />End construction ............................................................................................ 2010 <br />Number of Units constructed per year ............................................................ 76.3 <br />Number of children added to public school system per year ........................ 25.2 <br />Elementary .................................. 12.6 <br />Middle ..........................................6.3 <br />High ............................................... 6.3 <br />Total number of children added to public school system ................................201.6 <br />CIVIL ENGINEERING LAND PLANNING • SURVEYING <br />